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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 1, No. 5, August 19, 2002

The South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that will bring you regular data, assessments and news brief on terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on related economic, political, and social issues, in the South Asian region.

SAIR is a project of the Institute for Conflict Management and the South Asia Terrorism Portal.




STATISTICAL REVIEW

Political Activists killed by Terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir

  Year
Casualties
1989
0
1990
14
1991
8
1992
12
1993
0
1994
8
1995
16
1996
75
1997
52
1998
45
1999
53
2000
30
2001
49
2002*
49
TOTAL
411
Computed from official sources and English language media.
* Data till August 3, 2002

 

ASSESSMENT

 

INDIA

Democracy in the Shadow of Terror: J&K Elections, 2002
Guest Writer: Praveen Swami
Chief of Bureau, Mumbai, Frontline

In the summer of 2001, Noor Husain Gujjar made the two biggest mistakes of his life: he decided to stand for election and, even worse, he won.

Terrorist groups had warned villagers not to participate in the village-body elections then underway in the State of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), but since local members of the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin (HM) allowed a well-connected ethnic-Kashmiri neighbour to contest, Gujjar thought he would give it a shot as well. For his pains, he was tried by an impromptu HM court, and was punished by having his ears and nose chopped off, and his hand almost successfully severed by a single blow from an axe.

On Pakistan's Independence Day this year, General Pervez Musharraf described the coming elections in J&K as 'a farce'. He's partly right, but still dishonest. Dishonest, that is, because the democratic process in J&K has long been distorted by violence directed at all those who participate in it. In the build-up to the 2002 elections, assassinations of political activists who oppose terrorist formations have reached all-time highs, with 49 political activists in the State killed in the current year itself [Statistical Review]. Most, but by no means all, are from the ruling National Conference (NC). Opposition groupings like the Congress (I), the People's Democratic Party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and a welter of political organisations raised from the ranks of one-time terrorists themselves have also been hit.

Given that the ruling NC is the front-runner in the coming elections, there is little surprise that its activists have been singled out for special attention by terrorists. Some of these killings have been notable for their sheer cruelty. In May this year, for example, NC members Abdul Jabbar Bhat and Abdul Khaliq Bhat were ordered out of their home, and marched to the dense Batpora forest. Both men were tortured, and then beheaded. Nor is the assault on the party wholly new. Ghulam Mohammad Mir, a National Conference activist from Chiarkut, near Magam, defied terrorist posters, plastered on walls and lamp posts through the area, demanding that no one participate in the local elections held in 2001. He was executed. Elsewhere, other NC workers were forced at gunpoint into mosques, and told to proclaim their disassociation from the party over public address systems.

Even politicians committed to secession from India have not been safe, witness the assassination of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference's (APHC's) Abdul Gani Lone on May 21, 2002. Lone's 'crimes' included a willingness to engage in dialogue with the Indian government, opposition to the presence of Pakistan nationals among terrorist groups active in J&K, and an articulation of his belief that there was no military solution to the 'Kashmir problem'. Lone's killing was a clear warning to other 'moderates' within the APHC not to speak out against the 'global jehad' that Pakistan-backed terrorists were executing in J&K, and the chilling impact of his death on political discourse and the possibility of electoral participation is still intensely felt in political meetings and discussions in the State. Earlier, in year 2000, the senior centrist politician Aga Syed Mehdi had met a similar fate. As in the case of the NC, similar killings have repeatedly taken place over the last decade, notably those of Srinagar religious leader Mirwaiz Maulvi Mohammad Farooq and his Anantnag counterpart Qazi Nisar Ahmad.

For all of Musharraf's supposed commitment to de-escalating levels of violence in J&K, Pakistan has made little effort to conceal its direct role in subverting the ongoing election process. The HM, which has offices in Islamabad and Muzaffarabad, has issued repeated public warnings directed at potential candidates and voters. So, too, has the Pakistan-based al-Umar, led by Mushtaq Zargar, one of the terrorists released by India in return for the safety of passengers on an Indian Airlines flight hijacked to Kandahar in December 1999. Neither Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin nor al-Umar have faced any form of administrative sanction in Pakistan for their well-documented role in recent killings. The Pakistan-based Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JuM) has, moroever, clearly articulated this strategy to 'thwart so-called polls in held Kashmir,' stating that the 'elimination of activists of the ruling National Conference party was the initial phase of this programme.' Another group, the Islamic Front, proclaimed that the 'separatist leaders' in Kashmir were forbidden from participating in the electio
ns, adding ominously, "We will never forgive those who will take part in Indian polls."

Attacks on democratic politicians date back to 1990 - the one-time National Conference general secretary Mohammad Sayyed Masoodi was killed by Hezbullah that December. Trend data, however, makes it clear that the pattern has intensified as mainstream parties have again begun to assert their influence over civil society, particularly after the 1996 elections. Indeed, the assassination of politicians and political activists needs to be read in the wider context of efforts to intimidate civil society as a whole. On November 24, 2001, for example, 57-year old schoolteacher Gulzar Lone was shot dead in front of his students at the Government Middle School in Alal, near Thanamandi in Rajouri. His crime was to have taught his own daughter, Jabeera Lone, how to ride a two-wheeler (scooter). In March 2001, Kashmir-based businessmen providing supplies to the Indian Army faced death-threats, forcing many to beg terrorist groups for a reprieve through advertisements, in which they pointed out that their transactions were of a non-military character.

Top politicians, naturally, have been under sustained pressure. National Conference legislator Dilawar Mir's brother, Abdul Majid Mir, was killed at Rafiabad in January 2001, and the homes of State Ministers Mushtaq Ahmad Lone and Ali Mohammad Sagar were subsequently bombed. Both have faced repeated assassination attempts, as has Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah himself. On occasion, these tactics have had the desired results. Days after the 2001 attacks on Sagar and Lone, for example, the party's provincial president G.N. Shaheen accused India of "ruling Kashmir by its Army", and of "denying the people their right to self determination" - both assertions a stark departure from the party's official line.

Little effort is needed to understand why terrorist groups seek to intimidate the democratic process and its participants. Governments and political parties provide channels of patronage, grievance-resolution and authority, all of which the guns of the Islamist Right had exclusive control over until 1996. Although those elections were relatively peaceful, it rapidly became clear to terrorist groups that the new government posed a very real threat to their authority and influence. 1996 - the election year - itself had seen 75 political leaders and activists killed. 1997 witnessed another 52 such assassinations and, by the end of 1997 alone, there had been another 39 attacks directed at major and minor political figures. The tenor and intensity of these attacks has steadily escalated, from the bombing of an insignificant political figure's apartment in 1997 to the attempted mass-assassination of J&K legislators at the State Assembly in Srinagar in October, 2001.

Sadly, there is no international pressure on Pakistan to ensure action against groups active from its soil engaged in subverting the democratic process in J&K. Calls from Europe and the United States of America for international observers to be posted in J&K suggest that the West just isn't getting it. No election can be fair unless voters can vote, and candidates can seek their vote, freely and without fear. Perhaps international observers need to be looking at what's going on in Islamabad, not Srinagar.


ASSESSMENT

PAKISTAN

Balawaristan: The Heart of Darkness
Guest Writer: Abdul Hamid Khan
Chairman, Balawaristan National Front (BNF), Gilgit

Even as the much-publicized war on terror labours on, the world at large and the Indian sub- continent in particular, remains oblivious to the happenings in the occupied mountainous region of Pakistan, better known as the Northern Areas (NAs) or Balawaristan. Since the beginning of year 2002, the surviving dregs of the Afghanistan-based terrorist infrastructure have reportedly moved over into Pakistan, with the active connivance of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Initially, they moved into the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan and have since spread out from there, along with many cadres of proscribed Pakistani terrorist groups, to Pakistan held Kashmir (PhK), including Balawaristan (Pakistan occupied Gilgit Baltistan). President Musharraf's own domestic 'war' on the jehadi apparatus has remained a non-event thus far. During July 2002, while there were many raids by Pakistani security agencies during their hunt for suspected terrorists in Sindh, Punjab, Baluchistan, the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the FATA, there was not a single raid reported from PhK and the NAs. There have been consistent indications that, in order to avoid detection of their presence in Pakistani territory by the US intelligence agencies, and possible cross border punitive strikes by US forces operating in Afghanistan, the Pakistani military regime has commenced shifting important leaders of the Al Qaeda network to the Punjab province, PhK, Gilgit Baltistan and other places, which are now emerging as the primary hub for the elusive Al Qaeda terror network.

Over June and July, two groups of Taliban and one of Al Qaeda cadres arrived in the NAs, after entering the Dahrkoot Valley from Broghol in the Chitral district of the North West Frontier Province (NWFP), of Pakistan, which links with the Wakhan corridor, Badakhshan province, Afghanistan. Each group consisted about 30-50 persons. Their movement was facilitated despite protestations from the local Ismailia Muslims by the Wahabi fundamentalist administration of Yasen Tehsil in Ghezar district of Balawaristan. The first group of Taliban cadres reportedly stayed at Giyekooshi in the Dahrkoot valley for a month and were later transported towards Gilgit to head to the Darel and Tangir valleys of district Diamar. Unmarked ISI vehicles were used to transport Al Qaeda terrorists from Dahrkoot Valley to Gilgit City between 1 AM to 5 AM.

There has, in fact, been a steady inflow of Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives into the Ghezar valley in recent months. Terrorist training to Afghan mercenaries and various groups active in Indian held Kashmir (IhK) is being provided in the remote hilly areas of Hazara, Darel Yashote, Tangir, Astore, Skardu city and Gilgit city. These Pakistan-sponsored terrorist camps remain active despite President Musharraf's apparent crackdown against terrorism. Besides the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (previously Harkat-ul-Ansar) camp in Tangir, Diamar district, camps were located in Ghowadi village in Skardu, Juglote near Gilgit and Konodas, Gilgit. A large camp was established near Mansehra in the NWFP on the Karakorum Highway (KKH), from where the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, Kashmiri, Pakistani and other terrorists are deputed to different parts of occupied Balawaristan, PhK, and across the borders to Afghanistan and IhK.

Reports in December 2001 indicated that approximately 12,000 Kalashnikovs had been stored in Skardu city alone. Many Wahabi youth of Balawaristan had reportedly been recruited by the ISI to join the jehad, earlier in Afghanistan and subsequently in IhK. Indeed, in the light of evidence thus far, it would not be far fetched to say that Pakistan, and not Afghanistan, has been the center of the 'terror factories.'

After the post-January 12, 2002, 'crackdown' on jehadis, while the offices of certain terrorist groups have been closed down in Pakistan, many cadres of banned groups have been shifted to the NAs. No reports of arrests of terrorist cadres have been made from this region. As many as 3,000 terrorists are said to have recently secured training in the HuM camp in the Darel and Tangir area. Pakistan's mutating policies in the light of its 'frontier state' status have evidently led to the movement of terrorist cadres from Afghanistan to IhK via the NAs.

After Operation Anaconda (March 2-18, 2002) in Afghanistan, approximately 1,000 Al Qaeda cadres are reported to have escaped to Pakistan and of these, some 600 are believed to have been re-located around Gilgit-Baltistan (mostly in Darel and Tangir), with another 200 pushed into the upper reaches of the Pir Panjal region in IhK.

Pakistan occupied Gilgit Baltistan is administered directly by Islamabad as a virtual Pakistani colony. The population here, primarily Shia Muslims, was brought under one federally administered territory after Pakistan occupied Balawaristan on November 16, 1947, in the name of Islam. Balawaristan, or the Northern Areas, comprises five districts of Gilgit, Skardu, Ghezar, Diamar and Ganchhe, where basic human, political and civil rights have not been conferred on the people, and which are out of bounds to foreigners and journalists, except for occasional tightly controlled guided tours selectively organised by the Army or the intelligence agencies. Some nationalist groups beginning to protest against the prevailing situation have embarrassed Islamabad, and the response has been a crackdown against the fledgling political organisations here. The entire region is governed by a Kashmir Affairs and Northern Areas Affairs (KANA) Division of Islamabad, and the local elected body, called Northern Areas Legislative Council, has no power even comparable to that of a municipal body in a Pakistani city. KANA runs the administration from Islamabad through non-local officers, including a Judicial Commissioner (Chairman Chief Court) against whose judgements there is no right to appeal in any High Court or Supreme Court. The area has been under virtual Martial Law for almost five decades. Under the existing Frontier Crime Regulations (FCR), framed during the colonial era, every resident of Balawaristan has to report regularly to local intelligence personnel, and all movements from one village to another have to be reported to the authorities.

The Pakistani administration has also been involved in efforts to alter the demographic profile of Pakistan Occupied Gilgit Baltistan, reducing the indigenous people to a minority. In the Gilgit and Skardu areas, large tracts of land have been allotted to non-locals, violating the UNCIP resolutions and the J & K State Subject Rule. Other outsiders have purchased substantial stretches of land since they are, by and large, economically better off than the locals. As of January 2001, the old population ratio of 1:4 (non-locals to locals) had been transformed to 3:4. The rapid induction of Punjabi and Pakhtoon outsiders has created a sense of acute insecurity among the locals. Balawaristan is also a deprived region in terms of education and infrastructure, and there is only a negligible presence of daily newspapers, radio or TV stations.

In May 1999, the Supreme Court of Pakistan had ruled that Balawaristan (Pakistan Occupied Gilgit Baltistan) 'is a disputed territory and the Government of Pakistan has no claim over it'. The region has also been used as a battleground for Pakistan's sectarian agenda, and soured Shia-Sunni relations have claimed many lives in the ongoing sectarian violence. The military regime had used Afghan and Pakistani Wahabis, along with tribal sympathizers, to suppress the indigenous Shia population of Gilgit in year 1988. Gilgit witnessed widespread unrest for a fortnight commencing the last week of June 2001, due to protests by certain religious organizations against a decision by the Pakistani regime to impose religious text books in the schools, based on the ideology of a particular sect of Islam, and neglecting the majority Shia sect. Pakistani authorities terminated all movement between Gilgit and the rest of Pakistan and also imposed strict censorship on the publication of details of the Gilgit unrest during the agitation.

The political and administrative circumstances in Pakistan Occupied Gilgit Baltistan, with total control exercised by Islamabad through the Pakistan Army, with no popular freedoms or rights, and tight censorship of all information flows, makes the region an ideal and secret place for the relocation of the dislocated hub of international terrorism. This alone, if not the neglected rights of the people, or the region's systematic demographic destabilization and transformation, should be a matter of urgent concern for the international community.

 

NEWS BRIEFS

Weekly Fatalities: Major conflicts in South Asia
August 12-18, 2002

 
Security Force Personnel
Civilian
Terrorist
Total
INDIA
5
24
24
53
Assam
0
0
5
5
Jammu & Kashmir
4
7
17
28
Manipur
0
0
1
1
Meghalaya
0
14
0
14
Nagaland
0
0
1
1
Left-wing extremism
1
3
0
4
NEPAL
0
6
36
42
PAKISTAN
0
1
1
2
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.

 


INDIA

Seven infiltrators killed in Kupwara, J&K: Security forces (SFs) on August 17, 2002, foiled a major infiltration attempt by terrorists, killing at least seven of them near the Line of Control (LoC) in Keran sector of Kupwara district. Daily Excelsior, August 18, 2002.

KLO terrorists kill five CPM activists in West Bengal: At least five activists of the ruling Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) were killed and 14 others injured in an attack by suspected Kamatapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) terrorists at its local office at Dhupguri town in the Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal on August 17, 2002. Hindustan Times, August 18, 2002.

Jaish-e-Mohammed among 'terrorist underworld' says US Defence Secretary: US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has named Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), proscribed Pakistan-based terrorist group operating in Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, among the deadliest organisations in the "terrorist underworld." In his annual report to the US President and Congress, Rumsfeld attributed the emergence and growth of JeM and other terrorist groups to "…the absence of capable or responsible governments in many countries in wide areas of Asia, Africa and the Western Hemisphere," creating "a fertile ground for non-state actors to engage in terrorism, acquisition of NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) weapons, illegal drug trafficking, or other illicit activities across state borders." The report added, "A terrorist underworld including such groups as Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Jaish-e-Mohammed operates in such areas." Rediff.com, August 17, 2002.

J&K elections would usher in a new era, says Prime Minister Vajpayee: Addressing the nation from Red Fort in New Delhi on the occasion of Independence Day on August 15, 2002, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said the forthcoming State Legislative Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) would usher in a new era for the people of the State. Warning that nobody would be allowed to disrupt the elections, he criticized Pakistan for continuing cross-border terrorism. Times of India, August 15, 2002.

14 civilians killed by suspected NDFB terrorists in Meghalaya: 14 civilians were killed following an attack by suspected National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) terrorists in Meghalaya. While 12 civilians were killed and 25 others injured on August 13, 2002, after terrorists attacked a vehicle carrying traders and labourers near Raksamgiri village in West Garo Hills district. The death toll increased to 14 on August 14, 2002, with the recovery of a bullet-riddled body from the Raksamgiri jungles, even as another person succumbed to injuries at the Dhubri Civil Hospital in the State of Assam. Sentinel Assam, August 14, 2002; August 15, 2002.

Tamil Nationalist Movement banned in Tamil Nadu: The Tamil Nadu government on August 13, 2002, proscribed the Tamil Desiya Iyakkam (Tamil National Movement) under the Criminal Law Amendment Act, 1908. In a notification declaring TNM an 'unlawful association', the State government said the group had the object of supporting the cause of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) of Sri Lanka, and to promote similar objectives in Tamil Nadu. P. Nedumaran who is under detention under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) heads the organisation. The Hindu, August 14, 2002.

Al Qaeda waiting to regroup in Afghanistan, says External Affairs Minister: Addressing a press conference in New Delhi on August 12, 2002, on his return from a three-day visit to Afghanistan, External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha said Al Qaeda terrorists were waiting to regroup in certain parts of Afghanistan. He said Al Qaeda cadres were not visible in Kabul or anywhere nearby, but there was a danger of their regrouping in the peripheral areas and the Afghan leadership was fully aware of it. He cautioned the international community against determined attempts by Al Qaeda cadres to regroup in parts of Afghanistan and once again spread terror. The Pioneer, August 13, 2002.


PAKISTAN

More Al Qaeda terrorists in Pakistan than in Afghanistan says US General: Commander of the coalition forces in Afghanistan, Lieutenant-General Dan McNeill, said in Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan, that there may now be more of Al Qaeda terrorists operating in Pakistan than in the original theatre of war. He conceded that his task was now more complicated as the coalition does not have the right to conduct combat missions in Pakistan. While pointing out that sympathy for Al Qaeda remained strong in Pakistani tribal areas, he added that fewer than 1,000 of its cadres were now in Afghanistan. "I think in Afghanistan they probably still exist, they could number in the hundreds. I think just outside Afghanistan's borders ... their numbers could be in the hundreds, maybe even a thousand," said McNeill. Dawn, August 19, 2002.

Bin Laden and Taliban chief could be dead, says President Musharraf: Osama bin Laden and Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar could already be dead, President Pervez Musharraf said on August 14, 2002, in an interview to Russian daily Izvestia. "At this point no one has any precise information on the whereabouts of Omar and bin Laden and what they are doing. It is possible that they are already dead," said Musharraf. Dawn, August 15, 2002.


SRI LANKA

Peace talks between Government and LTTE to commence in September 2002: Norway, the facilitator in Sri Lanka's peace process, said in Oslo, on August 14, 2002, that direct peace talks between the government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are due to commence between September 12 and 17, 2002 in Thailand. Subsequently, Sri Lanka's Constitutional Affairs Minister G.L. Peiris indicated in Colombo, on August 16, 2002, that, following the first round of talks, there could be fortnightly meetings, each lasting for about three days, and added that Norway would be present at all future rounds as a facilitator. The venue and agenda for the talks are to be announced soon. Tamilnet.com August 14, 2002; Daily News, August 17, 2002.

Data and assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal

 

 

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Publisher
K. P. S. Gill

Editor
Dr. Ajai Sahni



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