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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 15, No. 27, January 2, 2017
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
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Unrelenting
Response
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
On December
24, 2016, two Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)
terrorists were killed during an operation, codenamed
‘Ripple 24’ at Ashkona in the Dakhkhin Khan area of the
capital city, Dhaka. Two women, Jebunnahar Shila, wife
of ex-army Major Zahid who was killed in a 'gunfight'
with law enforcers at Roopnagar in the capital on September
2, 2016; and Trishna, wife of absconding JMB leader Musa,
along with two children, surrendered to Police.
On October
8, 2016, a Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC)
unit killed seven JMB terrorists who were staying in a
two-storey house in the Patartek area in Gazipur District.
Police recovered three small arms and locally-made sharp
weapons from the site.
On August
27, 2016, three terrorists including Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury,
the mastermind of Gulshan attack and his two close aides
were killed in a Police raid in JMB den in Paikpara area
under Narayanganj District. Police recovered an AK-22
rifle, one pistol, several magazines and four live grenades
from the area.
On July
26, 2016, nine JMB terrorists were killed during a special
drive of the joint forces in Dhaka city's Kalyanpur area.
The joint force recovered 13 locally made grenades, around
five kilograms of gelatin, 19 detonators, four 7.62mm
pistols, seven magazines of 7.62mm pistols, 22 bullets,
three commando knives, 12 guerrilla knives and two black
flags with Arabic letters.
On July
2, 2016, 28 persons including 20 civilians, six terrorists
and two Police officers were killed in a hostage
crisis at Holey Artisan Bakery, a
Spanish restaurant in Dhaka’s Gulshan diplomatic zone.
A pistol used by the terrorists, a folded butt AK 22 rifle,
IEDs, a walkie-talkie set and a large number of locally
made sharp weapons were recovered from the spot.
The Awami
League (AL)-led Government, which came to power on January
6, 2009, has consolidated
its secular commitments through 2016, reining in Islamist
extremist groups and targeting the Left Wing Extremist
(LWE) movement in the country. According to partial data
collected by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP),
74 Islamist terrorists were killed and another 1,227 arrested
across Bangladesh in different raids in 2016. Prominent
among those killed were the ‘national operations commander’
of JMB Abdullah aka Noman (35); ‘Dhaka regional
commander’ of JMB Kamal aka Hiran (30); ‘military
and IT trainer’ of Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) Shariful
aka Arif; Neo-JMB leader and mastermind of Gulshan
attack Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury aka Shaykh Abu Ibrahim
Al Hanif aka Amir (30); JMB ‘military commander’
for the northern region Khaled Hasan aka Badar
Mama (30); Neo-JMB ‘military commander’ Murad aka Jahangir
Alam aka Omar; and JMB ‘regional commander’ Tulu
Mollah (33). By comparison, 31 Islamist terrorists were
killed in 2015 and 22 in 2014.
18 LWE-linked
fatalities were recorded, all of terrorists, in 2016.
These included four Purbo Banglar Communist Party (PBCP)
‘regional leaders’ Anwar Hossain (40), Al Amin Hossain
(35), Asadul Islam Fakir (39) and Mozaffar Sana (40);
one Gano Bahini ‘regional leader’ Amirul Islam; nine PBCP
cadres; three Gono Mukti Fauj (GMF, ‘People’s Freedom
Army’) cadres; and one Biplobi Communist Party (BCP) cadre.
Similarly, there were 17 LWE fatalities, all of terrorists,
in 2015; and 16, all of terrorists, in 2014. Meanwhile,
a total of 14 LW extremists including BCP ‘regional leader’
Badsha Mallik (45), eight PBCP cadres, four BCP cadres
and one Sarbohara Party cadre were arrested through 2016.
There were 10 such arrests in 2015 and 20 in 2014.
The War
Crimes (WC) Trials, which began on
March 25, 2010, have thus far indicted 74 leaders, including
44 from Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI); 12 from the Muslim League
(ML); five from Nezam-e-Islami (NeI); four from Bangladesh
Nationalist Party (BNP); two each from the Jatiya Party
(JP) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); four former Razakar
members; and one former Al-Badr member. Verdicts have
been delivered against 51 accused, including 29 death
penalties and 22 life sentences. So far, six of the 29
people who were awarded the death sentence have been hanged.
On September 3, 2016, JeI central executive member Mir
Quasem Ali (63) was hanged at Kashimpur Central Jail in
Gazipur District; on May 11, 2016, JeI Ameer (Chief)
Motiur Rahman Nizami (75) was executed at Dhaka Central
Jail; on November 22, 2015, JeI Secretary General Ali
Ahsan Mohammad Mojaheed (67) and BNP Standing Committee
member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury (66) were hanged simultaneously
at Dhaka Central Jail; on April 11, 2015, JeI Senior Assistant
Secretary General Mohammed Kamaruzzaman (63) was hanged
at Dhaka Central Jail; and on December 12, 2013, JeI Assistant
Secretary General Abdul Quader Mollah (65), who earned
the nickname ‘Mirpurer Koshai (Butcher of Mirpur)’ was
hanged at Dhaka Central Jail. 12 others are absconding
and another 11 cases are currently pending with the Appellate
Division of the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, out of 22 persons
who were awarded life sentences, four persons have already
died serving their sentence – former JeI Ameer Ghulam
Azam (91), who died on October 23, 2014; former BNP minister
Abdul Alim (83), who died on August 30, 2014; former JeI
National Assembly member S.M. Yousuf Ali (83), who died
on November 17, 2016; and former JeI member Gazi Abdul
Mannan (88), who died on December 19, 2016. 11 others
are absconding and another seven are lodged in various
jails of the country.
Significantly,
on September 29, 2016, Parliament unanimously adopted
a resolution to confiscate all movable and immovable assets
of the convicted killers of the Father of the Nation Sheikh
Mujibur Rahman and other war criminals. Further, on December
11, 2016, the Minister of Law Anisul Huq announced that
the Government was drafting a law to impound assets of
war criminals. Meanwhile, reaffirming her determination
to continue the trial of war criminals, Prime Minister
Sheikh Hasina Wajed on December 14, 2016, declared, "No
one will be able to save them [war criminals]. Whatever
the tactics and conspiracy they devise, the trial will
go on. I think the time has come the people will have
to be vocal. Those who nourished the war criminals, gave
them the political rights in the country gave them flag,
are the same criminals (sic). They didn’t want
the country’s independence and they also do not like development
of the country."
Disturbingly,
however, on December 8, 2016, Lieutenant Colonel Anwar
Latif Khan, Additional Director General (Operations) of
the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), noted “The terrorist
organizations are facing a severe manpower shortage after
they lost some high-profile terrorist leaders and trained
members during special drives in the previous months.
The terrorist outfits want to regain their striking power
by hiring new faces, the sources said when they were asked
about the recent incidents of going missing by some youths
(sic).” Further, on December 19, 2016, Mohamad
Shafiqul Islam, Deputy Inspector of General (DIG), Chittagong
Range, warned “After the attack on Holey Artisan Bakery
in Dhaka, the old JMB, which was the follower of Bangla
Bhai (Siddique ul-Islam), has become active again. We
are keeping an eye on their activities. Most of the JMB
members who carried out bomb blasts in 63 Districts are
out of jail. We have launched a hunt for the terrorists
who were named in the charge-sheet in the bomb blasts
case.”
Moreover,
there is the threat of increasing radicalization, as significant
numbers of youth appear to be attracted to the movements
of global jihad. Research conducted by East West
University, Dhaka, concluded, on November 21, 2016, that
one in every 10 university students in Bangladesh supports
terrorism. The study found more than half (51.7 percent)
of those students who support terrorism were from well-off
families. In terms of age groups, and 54.7 percent of
those who share such radical ideas were aged between 18
and 25 years. Similarly, Non-Government Organisation (NGO)
Shopner Desh, which conducted a preliminary research project
on the impact of militancy, disclosed, on December 20,
2016, that most rural students believe terrorist propaganda.
Some 20-25 per cent of Districts in Bangladesh were at
risk of terrorist activities and the tendency is significant
among students of village and rural level educational
institutes, where some 26 per cent of students have received
offers to join terrorist activities, the new study revealed.
The study also found that 87 per cent of rural students
who received such offers think that terrorist activities
are justified.
Worried
about the increasing number of women taking up the extremist
cause, law enforcement agencies disclosed, on December
25, 2016, that several woman terrorists were active in
Bangladesh. Most of them were members of JMB, Hizb-ut-Tahrir,
and Neo-JMB. Although law enforcement agency members failed
to determine the number of women involved in extremist
activities, recent operations in different parts of the
country exposes the increasing number of women terrorists
in these groups. At least 20 women have been arrested
on terrorism charges from different areas of the country.
According to sources, the terrorist groups pair up a female
and a male member, who identify themselves as husband
and wife, a pattern spoken of as the ‘couple module’.
On July
26, 2016, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina issued a 19-point
directive to the Deputy Commissioners (DCs) across the
country to discharge duties more carefully and strictly
in maintaining peace, law and order and stability by eliminating
militancy, terrorism and communalism, and ensuring that
people are not harassed and deprived while receiving government
services. Further, on October 8, 2016, Hasina declared,
“Our Government has always taken stern action against
terrorism and militancy and would continue to curb the
twin demons with an iron hand.... There would be no place
of terrorism and militancy on Bangladesh's soil.” Reaffirming
her firm stance against extremism, on December 29, 2016,
Hasina noted, “All will have to remain alert, mobilize
public opinion and wage a social movement against terrorism
and extremism so that no one can choose such wrong path
anymore. We want peace and there will be no development
without peace. Terrorism and extremism are not the path
of Islam… Islam is the path of peace and there’s no place
for terrorism and extremism in it.”
The AL-led
Government’s achievements on the counter-terrorism and
internal security fronts through 2016 have been remarkable.
Moreover, the Gulshan café siege have stung the Government
and law enforcement agencies to take the issue of extremism
even more seriously and to declare an all-out war against
terrorism. After the attack, law enforcers conducted pre-emptive
strikes at a number of terrorist dens, recovered arms,
ammunition and explosives and thus prevented further terror
incidents. However, the menace is far from over, as terrorist
recruitment continues, and new strategies are devised
to launch further attacks, creating a significant threat
to development and social stability. Given the sheer depth
of radicalization in Bangladesh – cultivated under the
patronage of successive Governments and legitimate political
parties over decades – this is not a problem that is going
to go away anytime soon, despite the exemplary efforts
and determination of the Sheikh Hasina regime.
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Manipur:
Troubles amidst Gains
Nijeesh
N.
Research Assistant, Institute for Conflict Management
On December
20, 2016, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) announced
that around 4,000 additional paramilitary personnel had
been sent to the State of Manipur, which was experiencing
increasing turmoil, as violent protests and an ‘indefinite
economic blockade’ on the two National Highways (Imphal-Dimapur
NH 2 and Imphal-Jiribam NH 37), that serve as lifelines
to the State, completed almost two months. The economic
blockade was launched on November 1, 2016, by the United
Naga Council (UNC) – the apex body of the Naga community
in Manipur – in protest against the State Government’s
decision to carve out new Districts from the existing
nine in the State, especially from the Naga-dominated
hill areas of Manipur. Worse, the Meitei dominated valley
people started a ‘counter-economic blockade’ in protest
against the UNC’s economic blockade, leading to violence
in the area. During the ongoing indefinite economic blockade,
the State has recorded several violent incidents and a
number of vehicles have been torched or vandalized by
the protesters. The landlocked State has also been undergoing
severe hardship in the supply of essential commodities
as the main highways are blocked by protesters.
The protests
had started on October 30, 2016, after the State Government
decided to upgrade the Sub-divisions of Sadar Hills and
Jiribam to full-fledged Districts. The Government subsequently
reversed its decision on October 31, 2016, as it was opposed
by the Naga organisations who felt that the upgrade would
help form more non-Naga-dominated Districts in the State.
However, on December 8, 2016, the Government surprisingly
announced the creation of seven new Districts – Kangpokpi
(conforming to the boundaries of the proposed Sadar Hills
District and carved out from Senapati District), Noney
(from Tamenglong District), Tengnoupal (from Chandel),
Pherzol (from Churachandpur), Kamjong (from Ukhrul), Kakching
(from Thoubal), and Jiribam (from Imphal East District).
Among incidents
of violence, on December 15, 2016,
at least three Manipur Police personnel were killed and
another 11 were injured, when militants ambushed road
opening parties (ROPs) of the Manipur Police at two different
places in Chandel District. The first ambush occurred
at around 6 am [IST] near the Lokchao Bridge in Lokchao
village. Two Police constables were killed and 11 were
wounded. M-79 grenade launcher shells and spent bullets
of M-16 assault rifles were recovered from the ambush
site. Around two hours later, a Police team coming from
the State capital, Imphal, was attacked in the Bongyang
area of the same District, and one Policeman on ROP duty
was killed. Though no outfit has claimed the attacks so
far, based on a report filed by State Director General
of Police (DGP) L.M. Khaute, the Manipur Government sent
details to UMHA on December 16, 2016, stating that the
Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council
of Nagaland (NSCN-IM)
was suspected to be behind the twin attacks.
Again,
on December 17, 2016, around 70 suspected NSCN-IM militants
attacked the Nungkao post of the 6th Manipur
Rifles (MR) and 7th Indian Reserve Battalion
(IRB) in the newly created Noney District and the militants
snatched away their loaded weapons by overpowering the
Security Force (SF) personnel.
Earlier,
Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh came under gun
attack on October 24, 2016, when suspected
NSCN-IM militants opened fire at him and his associates
as they were getting out of their helicopter at the Pakshi
Ground Helipad in Ukhrul District. Though the CM and his
tem escaped unhurt, one Manipur Rifles trooper, identified
as William Tarao, sustained severe injuries in the firing,
which lasted for more than ten minutes. The ambush on
the CM came amidst protests and a boycott call issued
by the native Naga tribal groups in protest against the
Ibobi Government’s alleged ‘step-motherly’ treatment towards
the Naga inhabited hill areas of the State.
The entirety
of incidents in the last few months of year 2016 have
created a volatile atmosphere in Manipur, which could
lead to a spread of violent clashes between the major
ethnic groups in the State.
On the
other hand, in terms of insurgency/militancy-related activities,
the State has recorded remarkable improvements through
2016, compared to the preceding year. According to partial
data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal
(SATP), in 2016, the State registered the lowest number
of fatalities, at 33 since 1992 [the year since which
SATP data is available], including 14 civilians, 11 SF
personnel and eight militants. In 2015, the State had
recorded 94 killings, including 17 civilians, 24 SF personnel
and 53 militants. The significant decline of 64.89 percent
in total fatalities in 2016 over the preceding year is
indicative of improvements in the general security environment
of the State.
As in the
case of total fatalities, the State also registered the
lowest number of civilian fatalities since 1992. The civilian
fatalities in the State have been declining since the
year 2008, when they stood at 131. Civilian fatalities
peaked in 1993, when 266 were recorded.
There were
a total of 22 incidents of insurgency-linked killing recorded
in 2016, as compared to 46 such incidents in 2015. The
number of major incidents (each involving three or more
fatalities) in 2016 also declined, with two such incidents
resulting in nine killed and seven injured, as against
eight incidents in 2015, with 45 killed and 33 injured.
In the worst
attack in 2016, on May 22, at least
six personnel of 29 Assam Rifles (AR), including one Junior
Commissioned Officer (JCO), were killed, and another seven
personnel were injured in an ambush laid by militants
at Hengshi village, near the India-Myanmar border, in
the Chakpikarong tehsil (revenue unit) of Chandel
District. The militants had triggered an Improvised Explosive
Device (IED) before opening fire on the AR convoy, and
they also looted four AK-47 rifles, one light machine
gun, one INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) rifle and ammunition.
Later, CorCom
[Coordination Committee], a conglomerate of six Manipur
Valley-based militant outfits – the Kangleipak Communist
Party (KCP),
Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL),
People's Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK),
its Progressive faction (PREPAK-Pro), Revolutionary People's
Front (RPF, the political wing of the People’s Liberation
Army, PLA), and United National Liberation Front (UNLF)
– has taken responsibility for the attack.
Killing
incidents were reported from eight of the State’s 16 Districts
(including the seven new Districts) in 2016. Chandel District
recorded the highest number of fatalities, 11 from four
incidents, followed by five killings in Imphal East District
in four incidents; Tamenglong, five (from five incidents);
Senapati, four (four incidents); Imphal West three (three
incidents); Thoubal, two (two incidents); Ukhrul, two
(one incident); and Churandpur District, one killing (one
incident). Bordering with Myanmar, Chandel District has
been witnessing deadly
militant attacks on SFs at regular
intervals in the recent past and remains volatile. Out
of the 11 SF fatalities in the State in 2016, nine were
located in Chandel. Interestingly, according to SATP data,
among the 10 Districts spread across the four northeastern
States [Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland]
of India that share borders with Myanmar, Chandel is the
worst
affected, accounting for at least
361 fatalities (61 civilians, 136 SF personnel and 164
militants) between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2016.
Other parameters
of violence also declined through 2016. There was a downturn
in incidents of explosion, of which 51 were recorded in
2016, resulting in two killed and 28 injured, as compared
to 54 in 2015, with eight fatalities and 40 injured. 66
incidents were recorded in 2014, resulting in 15 killed
and 76 injured.
The State
also recorded a sharp decline in the number of extortion
and abduction incidents registered during 2016. A total
of 35 extortion cases were reported during 2016; as compared
to 46 in 2015. However, actual incidence is likely to
be much higher as a large proportion of cases go unreported.
There were at least 13 incidents of abduction registered
in 2016, with 44 persons abducted; in 2015, 29 incidents
were recorded, resulting in 51 persons abducted. In one
recent incident, on December 18, 2016, around 22 non-local
labourers hailing from various valley areas were abducted
by unidentified militants from Paoi village under the
Litan Police Station of Kamjong District. On December
19, 2016, the labourers were released near a State security
post in Ukhrul District after they had been relieved of
their money and mobile phones. The abductors also allegedly
forced the labourers to put their names and signatures
on blank papers without giving any reason.
SFs arrested
175 militants through 2016, adding to the 478 arrested
in 2015. The highest number of arrested militants belonged
to different factions of Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP),
at 20; followed by 14 each of UNLF and different factions
of Kuki National Front (KNF); 13 each of KYKL and NSCN-IM;
10 of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA);
eight of the Thadou People's Liberation Army (TPLA); seven
of the PREPAK; six of the Khaplang faction of National
Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K);
five of the Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF); four
each of the RPF, Progressive faction of PREPAK (PREPAK-Pro),
Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) and National Revolutionary
Front of Manipur (NRFM); three of the Naga National Council
(NNC); two each of the Vice-Chairman faction of PREPAK
(PREPAK-VC), Hmar National Army (HNA) and United Naga
People's Council (UNPC); one each of the Kuki Unification
Frontal Organisation (KUFO), Bryan faction of Kuki Liberation
Front (KLF-Bryan), Kuki People Liberation Front/Army (KPLF/KPLA),
Kuki Revolutionary Army Unification (KRA-U),
Kangleipak National Revolutionary Front (KNRF); and 35
others, whose affiliation was unconfirmed.
However,
the recent spurt in violence by Naga ethnic groups in
Manipur in response to the Government’s decision to carve
out new Districts in the State casts a shadow on the future
of the historic “Frame
Work Agreement’ signed between the
Government of India and NSCN-IM on August 3, 2015. One
of the major challenges to finalizing a settlement has
been the issue of 'Naga integration' of all Naga dominated
areas in the States neighbouring Nagaland, including Manipur.
The principal demand of NSCN-IM for a Nagalim
(Greater Nagaland) comprising contiguous
Naga-inhabited parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur
and some bordering areas of the neighbouring country,
Myanmar, faces stiff opposition from these States, especially
Manipur. The Union Government has, however, committed
that it would ‘consult all the stakeholders’, including
the State Government of Manipur, before reaching a final
agreement.
Meanwhile,
on July 15, 2016, the Union Government initiated the first
round of political dialogue with Kuki militant groups
– the United Peoples’ Front (UPF) and the Kuki National
Organization (KNO) – in New Delhi. Satyendra Garg, Joint
Secretary, UMHA, who led the central delegation, chaired
the meeting, which was attended by representatives from
the two militant groups and the Manipur State Government.
Further, on October 19, 2016, the second round of tripartite
talks was held in New Delhi and, during the dialogue,
KNO and UPF reiterated their demands
in the presence of senior representative of the Manipur
Government. According to UMHA officials, the talks were
held in a cordial atmosphere and the next round of dialogue
will be held in consultation with the Manipur Government,
KNO and UPF. The issue of holding a political dialogue
with Kuki militant groups has dragged on for years. The
Indian Army and Kuki armed groups have observed a Suspension
of Operations (SoO) since August 1, 2005. An agreement
involving the UPF, KNO, the Union Government and the Manipur
State Government was formally signed on August 22, 2008.
Nevertheless,
on November 30, 2016, through a notification issued by
the Additional Chief Secretary (Home), J. Suresh Babu,
the Manipur Government extended the 'disturbed area status'
for the entire State of Manipur, excluding the areas covered
by the Imphal Municipal Corporation, under the controversial
Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), 1958, for another
year, with effect from December 1, 2016. The notification
stated; "The Governor of Manipur is of the opinion
that due to violent activities of various extremist/insurgent
groups, the entire State of Manipur is in such a disturbed
condition that the use of Armed Force in aid of civil
power is necessary". Section 3 of the AFSPA empowers
the State Government to extend the disturbed area over
the entire State or some selected areas. The AFSPA, which
was imposed in the State since September 1980, has been
extended from time to time. Except for the seven Assembly
segments under the Imphal Municipal Corporation, the 'disturbed
area status' would be applicable to all Valley and Hill
Districts.
In another
development, on August 9, 2016, activist Irom Chanu Sharmila
ended her 16-year-long fast demanding the withdrawal of
the AFSPA and announced her decision to contest the Assembly
polls in Manipur in 2017 under the banner of her newly
floated political party, the People’s Resurgence and Justice
Alliance (PRJA). Sharmila commenced her fast in protest
against the November 2, 2000, incident at Malom, a town
in the Imphal Valley , in which ten civilians
were shot and killed by SFs while waiting at a bus stop,
and demanded the scrapping of AFSPA.
Though
Manipur has achieved significant success in reducing insurgency-related
violence in 2016, the recent escalation of violence and
vandalism has the potential to adversely impact on the
security situation in the State and across the wider Northeast
region as well. Stringent measures to lift the ongoing
indefinite economic blockade and counter-economic blockade
as early as possible are urgently required, as the current
state of affairs is entirely unacceptable and could provoke
a cycle of escalating ethnic violence in the State.
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Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
December
26 - January 1, 2017
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Odisha
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Total (INDIA)
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Punjab
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
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| |