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SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Weekly Assessments & Briefings
Volume 14, No. 49, June 6, 2016
Data and
assessments from SAIR can be freely published in any form
with credit to the South Asia Intelligence Review of the
South Asia Terrorism Portal
|
Peripheral
Consolidation
S.
Binodkumar Singh
Research
Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
Amidst
surge in violence and talks with the Afghan Taliban hitting
a roadblock, the Afghan Government signed a draft peace
agreement with the Hezb-e-Islami (HeI) led by Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar on May 18, 2016. The draft agreement was signed
by HeI representatives and High Peace Council (HPC) officials
in the residence of Pir (revered religious instructor,
usually of Sufi orientation) Syed Ahmad Gilani. HeI has
agreed to have no links with anti-Government armed militant
groups.
The other
salient features of the draft peace agreement prominently
include: the Government would offer an official pardon
to associates of the HeI militant group and would work
to have the group removed from the United Nations blacklist;
the group would not join the Government but would be recognized
as a political party involved in major political decisions;
the agreement gives legal immunity for all past political
and military actions by HeI members and mandates the release
of all HeI prisoners within three months; and under the
agreement, Hekmatyar would have a consultant role on important
political and national decisions.
However,
a final agreement has not yet been reached. On May 24,
2016, Deputy Spokesman for President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani,
Syed Zafar Hashemi announced that there is no specific
timeframe for the conclusion of the peace deal with HeI.
He added that a peace process is always complicated and
it would be a mistake to confirm a timeframe regarding
the final accord.
Significantly,
HeI and the Afghan Government remain at odds on issues
such as the exit of foreign Forces. The ‘acting head’
and ‘deputy chief’ of HeI Mohammad Hakim Hakim on May
30, 2016, insisted that the Government must at least ascertain
a schedule for the exit of the foreign soldiers before
the deal could finally be settled.
In an apparent
breakthrough for the Afghan Peace Process, on March 27,
2016, HeI, the second largest insurgent group in Afghanistan,
accepted President Ashraf Ghani’s invitation and agreed
to join the direct peace talks with the Government. The
announcement was made through HeI’s official webpage Shahadat,
and declared, “Although the Americans have not yet ended
their war in Afghanistan and many of the officials in
Kabul Government see the peace process as a threat to
their powers and privileges, but we are ready to take
part in these talks, just to prove to our nation that
Hizb-e-Islami wants peace”. Later, on April 5 2016, stepping
back from his demands for the complete withdrawal of foreign
Forces, HeI chief negotiator Muhammad Amin Karim disclosed
that Hekmatyar was no longer demanding that all foreign
troops leave Afghanistan. HeI had, in the past, always
demanded the complete withdrawal of foreign Forces from
Afghanistan.
About 12,813
foreign troopers, including 6,954 US troops are still
stationed inside Afghanistan under the Resolute Support
Mission. Moreover, on October 15, 2015, US President Barack
Obama stated that he would keep 5,500 US troops in Afghanistan
into 2017, arguing "Afghan Forces are still not as
strong as they need to be... Meanwhile, the Taliban has
made gains, particularly in rural areas, and can still
launch deadly attacks in cities, including Kabul.” There
is, consequently, no chance of complete withdrawal of
Foreign Forces from Afghan soil in the foreseeable future.
The radical
Islamist party, HeI, was formed by its current chief Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar in opposition to Mohammad Daud Khan, who had
become President in 1973 after engineering a coup against
the last Afghan King, Zahir Shah, with the support of
the erstwhile Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics
(USSR). Hekmatyar, a radical internationalist Pashtun,
recruited profoundly from among Government secular schools
and Kabul religious schools. The party drew maximum support
from Nuristan, Nangarhar and around Kabul. With the passage
of time, dissent grew within the party, and it split as
another two cofounders Burhanuddin Rabanni and Mawlawi
Mohammed Yunis Khalis established their own factions.
Burhanuddin Rabbani became President of Afghanistan on
June 28, 1992, and remained in power till September 27,
1996, when the Taliban seized control of Kabul.
In May
1996, Rabbani and Hekmatyar formed a power-sharing Government
in which Hekmatyar was made Prime Minister. But, the Rabbani-Hekmatyar
regime lasted only a few months before the Taliban took
control of Kabul in September 1996. Many of the HeI local
commanders joined the Taliban. In Pakistan, HeI training
camps were taken over by the Taliban and handed over to
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) groups such as the Sipah-e-Sahaba
Pakistan (SSP).
Hekmatyar then fled to Iran in 1997 and resided there
for almost six years. However, as a result of pressure
by the US and the Hamid Karzai administration, on February
10, 2002, all HeI offices were closed in Iran and
Hekmatyar was expelled by his hosts. Thereafter, he is
believed to have shuttled between hideouts in Pakistan's
mountainous tribal areas and northeast Afghanistan, and
is estimated to have 1,500-2,000 armed cadres across Afghanistan.
HeI had
conducted some widely publicized attacks during the past
few years even while negotiations were under way. These
included the May 16, 2013, suicide attack in Kabul which
destroyed a US armored vehicle. 14 persons, including
two US soldiers, four US civilian contractors and eight
Afghan nationals, were killed in the attack. HeI also
claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Kabul on
February 10, 2014, which killed two US civilians and wounded
another two Americans and seven Afghan nationals. In July
2015, Hekmatyar called on his followers to support the
Islamic State (IS) extremist group in its fight against
the Taliban. Significantly, IS has made some inroads
into Afghanistan, particularly in the Nangarhar Province.
It is in this context that the present agreement has added
significance.
Though
many commentators are of the view that this agreement
will force the Taliban to come to peace table, such an
outcome is most unlikely in the present situation. The
killing
of the Pakistan-installed head of the Afghan Taliban,
Mullah Akhtar Mansour, near Ahmed Wal in Balochistan,
squarely on Pakistani soil, on May 21, 2016, has stalled
the already checkered peace process for the time being.
In fact,
Taliban representatives have met with the Afghan Government
only once,
in the intervening night of July 7 and July 8, 2015, in
Murree in Pakistan, with an agreement to meet again on
August 15 and 16, 2015, in the Qatar capital, Doha. However,
the talks quickly collapsed as the Afghan Government on
July 29, 2015, disclosed that Mullah Mohammad Omar, leader
of the Taliban, had died in April 2013 in Pakistan – a
fact that both the Pakistani agencies and the Taliban
leadership had kept secret, even as they continued to
manipulate Mullah Omar’s identity, issuing several statements
on his behalf. Subsequently, the Taliban split into two
factions – one led by Pakistan’s nominee, Mullah Akhtar
Mansoor and another by Mullah Mohammad Rasool.
A bitter
succession war ensued within the Taliban, and this did
not help the peace process. Pakistan was, however, able
to force reconciliation by September 2015, and Mullah
Mansoor’s authority over both the factions was restored.
On February
16, 2016, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Abdullah Abdullah called on the Taliban to come to the
negotiation table, warning that they could not fulfill
their hopes through war. Once again, on March 7, 2016,
during a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, Abdullah
declared, “The anti-government armed militants are invited
to respond positively towards the legitimate calls of
the Government of national unity for the revival of peace
process.”
Nevertheless,
the Taliban failed to attend the fifth meeting of the
Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) involving Afghanistan,
Pakistan, China and the United States, that was held in
Pakistan’s capital city, Islamabad, on May 18, 2016. The
QCG reiterated that violence served no purpose and that
peace negotiations remained the only option for a political
settlement, and the various QCG countries reaffirmed that
they would use their respective leverages and influences
to these ends. There was some florid rhetoric about the
continued determination with shared commitment to advance
the goal of an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation
process, and it was decided that the next QCG meeting
will would be convened as mutually agreed.
The first
meeting of the QCG was held in Islamabad on January 11,
2016; the second in Kabul on January 18, 2016; the third
in Islamabad on February 6, 2016; and the fourth in Kabul
on February 23, 2016.
Despite
efforts to end the violence in Afghanistan through the
reconciliation process, the Taliban announced the launch
of summer offensive in Afghanistan, named ‘Omari Operations’
for the founder and first supreme leader of the group
Mullah Mohammad Omar, on April 12, 2016. Since the launch
of the summer offensive, according to partial data compiled
by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 3276
fatalities in terrorist violence have been recorded across
Afghanistan till June 5, 2016; of these, 2923 have been
Taliban and other terrorist cadres. The Security Forces
(SFs) have lost 161 personnel and 192 civilians have been
killed.
The peace
agreement between the Afghan Government and HeI is a welcome
step, though it presently remains tentative. The Government
and some of its international allies seem to hope that
it may serve as a possible blueprint for a desired peace
accord with the Taliban. Such expectations are based on
a poor understanding of the nature of these groups, and
Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, on May 14, 2016,
openly declared, “The deal with Hezb-e-Islami would have
no impact on the overall peace process.”
Pakistan
continues to support the Taliban against Kabul, and the
Taliban have established dominance over vast territories
within Afghanistan. There is, at present, little incentive
for the Taliban to give all this up to accept any position
as a junior partner in the state apparatus in Kabul; and
such an outcome would certainly not meet the ambitions
of the Taliban’s Pakistani handlers. The QCG process is
based on contrafactual assumptions and a denial of reality,
and is, consequently, still born.
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A
Nursery of Terrorism
Tushar
Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management
The madrassas
in Pakistan's tribal grounds are factories of
suicide bombers.
Brian Douglas Williams, NBC News
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The new
chief of Afghan Taliban Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada
is a product of Pakistani madrassas (religious
seminaries) and still leads a string of madrassas across
Pakistan's south-western Balochistan. Akhundzada succeeded
Mullah Akhtar Mansour who was killed in a U.S. drone strike
on May 21, 2016.
Media reports
in May 2016 quoted a senior counter-terrorism (CT) officer
indicating that a confidential report titled “Proscribed/Jihadi
Organizations” noted that major banned outfits in the
country were still recruiting madrassa students to wage
jihad in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and that such
non-state actors had become very dangerous for Pakistan
as well. In the secret document, consisting of 111 pages,
the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD), Punjab, disclosed
that 32 proscribed organizations and nine of their splinters
groups had become “a nursery of terrorism in Pakistan.”
Banned organizations like Islamic State (Daesh) and Hizb-ut-Tahrir
(HuT) had also gained ground, establishing special wings
in the country, with their ‘commanders’ recruiting terrorists.
Adjacent areas of Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot and some
southern Districts of Punjab – long dominated by prominent
domestic terror formations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba – have
now become a breeding ground for these foreign formations.
In a bid
to target domestic terrorism and restore a measure of
peace after the December 16, 2014, Peshawar school attack,
the Government initiated a ‘crackdown’ on madrassas under
the National Action Plan (NAP). On February 24, 2016,
the Government shutdown 254 suspected and unregistered
madrassas across the country, Minister of State for Interior
and Narcotics Control Balighur Rehman told the National
Assembly. He stated that 167 suspect seminaries including
72 that are unregistered in Sindh, 13 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP), and two in Punjab have been closed. "The government
is countering hate speech and banning dissemination of
extremist material," he added. Regarding registration
and regulation of seminaries, the State Minister claimed
that the Government had completed 100 per cent mapping
on agreed parameters in Islamabad and Punjab. Eighty per
cent of the mapping exercise had been completed in Sindh,
followed by 75 per cent in KP and 60 per cent in Balochistan.
Rehman disclosed, further, "There are 190 foreign-funded
seminaries in the country, of which 147 are in Punjab,
30 in Balochistan, seven in KP and six in Sindh."
The Madrassa
Reforms Project, which was initiated by then President
General Pervez Musharraf in the wake of the Lal Masjid
debacle July 2007, is still incomplete despite the lapse
of nine years. Under the project, some 8,000 Islamic seminaries,
about 1.6 million students and approximately 120,000 teachers
of these madrassas were to be registered, but only 432
madrassas have yet been registered and, of them, just
36 are getting funds from the Ministry of Religious Affairs.
The number
of madrassas in Pakistan has crossed 35,000, from fewer
than 300 at the inception of Pakistan, according to a
report issued in Karachi on July 30, 2015. Titled, The
Madrassa Conundrum — The state of religious education
in Pakistan, the report is authored by Umair Khalil,
lead researcher of the non-governmental research organisation,
HIVE. According to the report, “After 11 years
of Zia’s rule, the madrassa total ballooned to 2,801 with
Deobandis accounting for 64 per cent of the total and
the Barelvis only 25 per cent.” After Zia’s death, the
state continued to retain an interest in supporting a
particular religious group to play a role in the ongoing
proxy war with India for Kashmir. The increase in the
number of madrassas between 1988 and 2002 showed a significant
rise in Deobandi seminaries, which increased from 1,779
to 7,000. Barelvi seminaries rose from 717 to 1,585; Ahle
Hadith from 161 to 376; Shia from 47 to 419; and Jamaat-e-Islami
from 97 to 500. The total number of madrassas in 1988
was 2,801, which shot up to 9,880 in 2002.
According
to the Ministry of Religious Affairs Data, the cumulative
figure of registered and unregistered madrassas in Pakistan
is 34380. While, 14,768 madrassas in Punjab, 7,118 in
Sindh, 2,704 in Balochistan, 1,354 in KP and 187 madrassas
in Islamabad are registered, 4,135 in KP, 2,411 in Punjab,
1,406 in Sindh, 266 in Balochistan and 31 in Islamabad
are unregistered. Meanwhile, the registered madrassas
across Pakistan according to the Provincial Home Departments
is 35,337 out of which 16,000 madrassas in Punjab, 13,000
in Balochistan, 3,136 in KP, 2,800 in Sindh and 401 in
Islamabad. Around 3.5 million students are currently perusing
a religious education in 35,337 madrassas affiliated with
Ittehad-e-Tanzeemat-e-Madaris Pakistan (ITMP) — an umbrella
of the five schools of Islamic jurisprudence.
An April
28, 2016, media report claimed that the number of madrassas
in the country, as well as the number of students enrolled
in them, continues to rise. Even though seminary boards
offer different reasons for the growing number of students
and institutions in the country, the administrators of
all five mainstream seminary boards believe that a lack
of a clear policy was augmenting negative growth as well.
Sahibzada Abdul Mustafa Hazarvi, Nazim-e-Ala (President)
of the Tanzeem-ul-Madaris Ahl-e-Sunnat, the board for
seminaries affiliated with the Barelvi school of thought
thus noted, "The Government is not doing anything,
but it wants the five boards and the seminaries registered
with us to be as perfect as a polished shoe... It was
only due to misconduct that Wifaqul Madaris al-Arabia
delisted Jamia Hafsa [the madrassa attached to Lal Masjid]
in Islamabad in 2007, in wake of anti-state political
activities. But what have the authorities done? The seminary
still continues to hold classes, is increasing its branches,
enhancing the number of students and even criticises the
board for not registering it – this is the writ of Government
in Islamabad." Mustafa disclosed that there were
around 9,000 madrassas affiliated with the Barelvi school
of thought, imparting religious education to more than
1.3 million students. He said that there has been an increase
of 10 per cent in the number of seminaries and students
as compared to the previous year.
About 24,000
madrassas in Pakistan are funded by Saudi Arabia which
has unleashed a "tsunami of money" to "export
intolerance", American senator Chris Murphy observed
on January 29, 2016, in an address to the Council on Foreign
Relations, adding that the US needs to end its effective
acquiescence to the Saudi sponsorship of radical Islamism.
Murphy noted, further, "In 1956, there were 244 madrassas
in Pakistan. Today, there are 24,000. These schools are
multiplying all over the globe. These schools, by and
large, don't teach violence. They aren't the minor leagues
for al-Qaeda or ISIS. But they do teach a version of Islam
that leads very nicely into an anti-Shia, anti-Western
militancy”. Senator Murphy asserted that Pakistan was
the best example of places where money coming from Saudi
Arabia is funnelled to religious schools that nurture
hatred and terrorism. According to some estimates, since
the 1960s, the Saudis have funnelled over USD 100 billion
into funding schools and mosques all over the world with
the mission of spreading puritanical Wahhabi Islam. As
a point of comparison, researchers estimate that the former
Soviet Union spent about USD 7 billion exporting its communist
ideology from 1920-1991. "Less-well-funded governments
and other strains of Islam can hardly keep up with the
tsunami of money behind this export of intolerance,"
Murphy concluded.
John Cassara,
a former US Intelligence Officer and Treasury Special
Agent told members of the House Financial Services Committee
during a Congressional hearing on February 3, 2016, that
radical Pakistani madrassas were engaged in massive trade-based
money laundering (TBML) to fund jihadist groups: "It
was engaged in a side business dealing in animal hides.
In order to justify the large inflow of funds, the madrassa
claimed to sell a large number of hides to foreign customers
at grossly inflated prices. This ruse allowed the extremists
to 'legitimise' the inflow of funds which were then passed
to terrorists."
Sartaj
Aziz, the Prime Minister's Advisor on Foreign Affairs,
stated, on March 4, 2016, that the madrassas along the
Af-Pak border and tribal areas, in particular North Waziristan,
had become a hub of terrorist activities. These madrassas
had a well-oiled terror infrastructure beyond imagination,
running bomb-making factories, terrorist training centres
and centres to train suicide bombers – all in multi-storied
basements under mosques. giving details of the how deep
rooted terror infrastructure had developed in Pakistan,
Aziz added, "In one mosque that I visited, I remember,
in Miranshah, from outside we did not see anything. But
under the mosque there was a 70-room basement, three stories,
in which there were four-five IED factories, four-five
suicide training centers, communication network, VIP room,
conference rooms, amazing infrastructure."
Astonishingly,
Aziz blamed Afghan refugees, who entered the country when
the US pushed the Taliban out of power after the 9/11,
for these developments. These madrassas, he argued, were
jointly "funded, armed and created" by the US
and Pakistan to train people to fight against the Russians
in Afghanistan. He further stated, “We have about 75,000
unregistered madrassas”, where people are trained, brainwashed,
and prepared for terrorist activities.
The Pakistani
state perspective is disingenuous, and seeks to evade
the fundamental fact that the madrassas which had been
producing radicals have long been its own assets, exploited
as an instrument of geostrategic extension. In its report,
‘Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab’, released
on May 30, 2016, the International Crisis Group (ICG)
observes, “Continued state sponsorship remains a source
of empowerment for groups that fall under the category
of “good” jihadists, such as the Jaish, which has networks
across the province.” The report further added that “The
region hosts two of Pakistan’s most radical Deobandi groups,
Jaish-e-Mohammed, held responsible by India for the January
2, 2016 attack on its Pathankot airbase; and the sectarian
Laskhar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
which was at least complicit in, if not solely responsible
for, the March 27 Easter Sunday attack that killed more
than 70 in Lahore.”
ICG confirms
that the Jaish-e-Mohammad’s infrastructure at Bahawalpur
is intact, including its sprawling headquarters at the
Usman-o-Ali Madrasa and other mosques and madrassa across
the District. A Federal Minister and Member of Parliament
from Bahawalpur, Riaz Husain Pirzada concurs, “the breeding
grounds remain; the [sectarian] madrassa are still being
financed.” According to local observers, the Jaish also
continues to run a prominently-located training cell on
a main Bahawalpur road toward Ahmedpur tehsil [revenue
unit], which attracts young (often teenaged) recruits
from around southern Punjab, ICG adds.
Worse,
there is no possibility of any effective action against
what are conceived of as pro-establishment and anti-Indian
armed formations in the province. Punjab Law Minister
Rana Sanaullah, on May 17, 2016, thus declared, “legal
action against militant groups such as Jamaat ud Dawa
(the parent organisation of the Lashkar-e-Taiba) and Jaish-e-Mohammad
(JeM)
is not possible as the state itself is involved.”
In 2013,
the same Punjab Government allocated more than PKR 61
million in the budget for fiscal 2013-14 for ‘Markaz-e-Taiba’,
JuD’s largest centre. In 2009-10, the Government provided
more than PKR 82 million for the administration of JuD
facilities. In fiscal 2010-11, Chief Minister Shehbaz
Sharif, using his discretionary powers, allocated two
separate grants for JuD facilities. The Government granted
PKR 79.8 million for six organisations at Markaz-e-Taiba
and a special grant-in-aid of PKR 3 million for JuD’s
Al-Dawa School System in several Districts of Punjab.
Pakistan’s
two faced strategy on terrorism remains deeply entrenched
in the state apparatus, and as long as madrassas and other
religious institutions continue to be used to raise armies
of terrorists to direct against Afghanistan and India,
a spillover into Pakistani territory will inevitable continue.
Despite periodic and loud lamentations, this appears to
be a price Islamabad remains willing to pay for its overreaching
and improbable regional ambitions.
|
Weekly Fatalities: Major
Conflicts in South Asia
May 30-June 5, 2016
|
Civilians
|
Security
Force Personnel
|
Terrorists/Insurgents
|
Total
|
BANGLADESH
|
|
Islamist Terrorism
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
INDIA
|
|
Assam
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Jammu and
Kashmir
|
0
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
Meghalaya
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Left-Wing
Extremism
|
|
Jharkhand
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
Maharashtra
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Total (INDIA)
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
9
|
PAKISTAN
|
|
Balochistan
|
0
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
FATA
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
KP
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Punjab
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Sindh
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
12
|
Total (PAKISTAN)
|
|
|
|
|
Provisional
data compiled from English language media sources.
|
BANGLADESH
Terror
incidents
went
up
significantly
in
Bangladesh
in
2015,
says
US
Country
Report
on
Terrorism:
United
States
(US)
Country
Report
on
Terrorism
released
on
June
2
said
that
terror
incidents
went
up
significantly
in
Bangladesh
in
2015.
The
report
said,
"In
2015,
Bangladesh
experienced
an
increase
in
terrorist
attacks
against
religious
minorities
and
government
installations
and
for
the
first
time,
transnational
groups
have
claimed
responsibility
for
these
attacks.
The
government
articulated
a
'zero-tolerance'
policy
towards
terrorism
and
remained
committed
to
counterterrorism
cooperation,
but
the
country
experienced
a
significant
increase
in
violent
extremist
activity
in
2015
compared
to
2014."
Daily
Star,
June
4,
2016.
16
groups
with
JeI
root
engaged
in
terrorist
acts,
says
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Hasina
Wajed:
Prime
Minister
Sheikh
Hasina
Wajed
while
meeting
Australian
High
Commissioner
to
Bangladesh
Greg
Wilcock
at
her
Parliament
office
on
June
2
said
that
16
groups
with
Jamaat-e-Islami
(JeI)
root
engaged
in
terrorist
activities
in
the
country.
Referring
to
vandalism
and
torching
by
the
Bangladesh
Nationalist
Party
(BNP)-JeI
nexus
before
and
after
the
general
election
of
2015,
Sheikh
Hasina
said
they
burnt
the
people
to
death
and
destroyed
public
property
during
the
period.
New
Age,
June
3,
2016
Extremists'
backbone
broken
and
no
longer
capable
of
going
for
concerted
attacks,
says
Foreign
Minister
AH
Mahmood
Ali:
Foreign
Minister
AH
Mahmood
Ali
while
meeting
the
newly
appointed
Malaysian
High
Commissioner
to
Bangladesh
Nur
Ashikin
Binti
Mohd
Taib
on
June
2
said
that
the
extremists'
backbone
had
been
broken
and
they
were
no
longer
capable
of
going
for
concerted
attacks.
"Some
offshoots
conducted
a
few
isolated
attacks,
but
police
have
prevented
many
more
from
happening
and
successfully
rounded
up
perpetrators,"
he
said.
Daily
Star,
June
3,
2016
INDIA
Indian
Army
strikes
back,
kills
eight
militants
in
Myanmarese
territory,
say
sources:
Indian
troops
are
said
to
have
entered
Myanmarese
territory
for
the
second
time
in
less
than
a
year
in
pursuit
of
militants
responsible
for
the
May
22
deadly
ambush
on
an
Assam
Rifles
convoy
in
Manipur
and
initial
reports
suggested
that
at
least
eight
militants
were
killed
in
the
operation
on
May
27,
officials
familiar
with
the
matter
said.
"The
AR
(Assam
Rifles)
has
informed
us
that
besides
killing
eight,
they
have
picked
up
18
militants
who
were
later
handed
over
to
the
Myanmar
authorities,"
said
an
official
from
the
security
establishment.
The
Sangai
Express,
May
31,
2016.
LeT
operatives
to
be
launched
from
Sri
Lanka
to
strike
in
Andhra
Pradesh,
says
Intelligence
Bureau:
Visakhapatnam
in
Andhra
Pradesh
(AP)
has
become
a
potential
target
for
terrorist
groups,
there
has
been
a
general
alert
in
Visakhapatnam
in
Andhra
Pradesh
following
chatter
being
picked
up
by
the
Intelligence
Bureau
(IB)
suggesting
Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LeT)
operatives
would
be
launched
from
Sri
Lanka
to
strike.
The
matter
had
come
up
for
discussion
during
the
law
and
order
review
meeting
that
AP
chief
minister,
Chandrababu
Naidu
held
with
top
Police
officials.
Naidu
was
told
that
vital
installations
in
Visakhapatnam
are
high
on
the
radar
of
terrorist
groups.
One
India,
June
2,
2016.
Three
blasts
in
Haryana
possible
dry
run
for
terror
attack,
according
to
NIA:
The
NIA
(National
Investigation
Agency)
suspects
three
low-intensity
blasts
in
Haryana
this
year
(2016)
were
the
handiwork
of
a
single
person
conducted
as
part
of
a
'dry
run'
ahead
of
a
possible
terror
attack.
The
agency
has
submitted
its
report
to
the
Haryana
Police
on
the
blast
that
took
place
inside
a
bus
near
Pipli
in
Kurukshetra
District
on
May
26
which
bore
"striking
similarity"
to
the
explosions
that
occurred
on
January
16
and
May
13.
Times
of
India,
June
1,
2016.
500
Indian
youth
planning
to
join
IS
to
establish
Islamic
Caliphate,
says
report:
Nearly
500
Indian
youth,
who
have
been
attracted
towards
terror
outfit
Islamic
State
(IS)
are
being
tracked
by
investigative
agencies.
According
to
the
latest
estimate
of
government
and
intelligence
agencies,
400-500
Indians
were
found
being
impressed
by
IS's
ideological
lure
of
the
so-called
caliphate.
Intelligence
agencies,
state
Police
departments
and
National
Investigation
Agency
(NIA)
are
on
their
toes
and
constantly
tracking
the
activities
of
Indian
youth
who
showed
interest
towards
IS.
India Today,
May
31,
2016.
Digital
Jihad
and
cross
border
terror
infiltration
two
biggest
challenges
for
Government,
says
report:
Digital
jihad
and
cross-border
infiltration
of
terrorists
have
been
the
two
biggest
challenges
for
the
government
in
the
last
two
years
even
though
there
has
been
no
major
strike
in
the
hinterland.
In
the
last
two
years,
the
Islamic
State
(IS)
threat
is
making
security
officials
anxious
even
though
the
government
has
downplayed
it.
But
the
security
establishment
is
alarmed
at
the
high
rate
of
online
indoctrination.
In
fact
the
government
is
trying
to
keep
pace
with
the
rapidly
changing
dynamics
of
IS
that
is
making
efforts
to
lure
Indian
youth.
India Today,
May
31,
2016.
JMB
has
moved
from
bombs
to
propaganda
in
West
Bengal,
states
the
NIA:
The
National
Investigation
Agency
(NIA)
which
has
been
probing
the
October
2,
2014
Bardhaman
blast
says
that
the
smaller
modules
of
Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen
Bangladesh
(JMB)
are
now
heavily
engaging
in
propaganda
instead
of
preparing
bombs
like
they
did
earlier.
While
the
bomb
making
industries
of
the
JMB
have
come
to
a
halt
due
to
an
extensive
crack
down,
investigators
fear
that
smaller
modules
now
may
be
engaging
in
a
propaganda
battle.
One
India,,
June
1,
2016.
AQIS
asks
jihadists
to
spare
women
and
children
in
its
newly
released
audio
message:
After
an
Islamic
State
(IS)
propaganda
video
featuring
six
Indians
surfaced
a
fortnight
ago,
the
Al
Qaeda
in
Indian
Subcontinent
(AQIS),
which
is
headed
by
Asim
Umar,
released
a
26-minute
audio
message
titled,
'Without
Shariah,
War
is
Mere
Strife',
"cautioning
fighters
against
harming
innocent
Muslims".
Umar,
the
head
of
AQIS
identified
by
security
agencies
as
Sanaullah
Haq
from
Sambhal
in
Uttar
Pradesh
and
said
to
be
based
in
the
Afghanistan-Pakistan
region,
said
in
this
Urdu
post,
"targeting
innocent
Muslims
as
well
women
and
children
of
the
enemy
contradicts
Islamic
Shari'ah,
and
will
prevent
the
fighter
who
perpetrates
such
an
act
from
attaining
the
rewards
of
jihad."
The Hindu,
June
3,
2016.
Indo-Bangladesh
border
in
Assam
to
be
sealed
by
June
2017,
says
Central
Government:
The
Bharatiya
Janata
Party
(BJP)-led
National
Democratic
Alliance
(NDA)
Government
on
June
2
ordered
complete
sealing
of
Assam's
border
with
Bangladesh
by
June
next
year
(2017),
fulfilling
an
electoral
pledge
of
BJP
within
a
week
of
assuming
power
in
Assam
to
check
illegal
immigration
from
the
neighbouring
country.
Union
Home
Minister
(UHM)
Rajnath
Singh
issued
the
order
at
a
high-level
meeting
attended
by
top
Home
Ministry
officials
in
New
Delhi.
Shillong
Times,
June
3,
2016.
Surrender
or
get
killed,
Jharkhand
DGP
tells
LWEs:
The
Jharkhand
Director
General
of
Police
(DGP)
D
K
Pandey
on
May
30,
appealed
to
Left
Wing
Extremists
(LWEs)
to
surrender
or
be
ready
to
face
bullets.
Pandey
made
this
announcement
while
addressing
villagers
during
inauguration
of
Jageshwar
Vihar
Police
Station
at
a
hypersensitive
zone
in
Gomia
block
in
Bokaro
District.
He
took
the
name
of
dreaded
Communist
Party
of
India-Maoist
(CPI-Maoist)
'commander'
Duryodhan
Mahto
alias
Mithlesh
Singh
and
appealed
to
him
to
surrender
or
else
Police
would
target
him.
Times
of
India,
May
31,
2016.
NEPAL
‘No
one
can
budge
my
Government,
says
Prime
Minister
KP
Sharma
Oli:
Prime
Minister
KP
Sharma
Oli
on
May
31
said
that
no
one
could
budge
his
Government
and
hinted
that
he
wanted
to
stay
in
power
as
long
as
he
could.
Oli
said
he,
however,
was
in
favor
of
the
national
consensus.
But,
the
consensus
Government
could
not
be
actualized
when
he
became
the
Prime
Minister
as
the
current
opposition
Nepali
Congress
(NC)
insisted
on
the
active
role
of
the
opposition,
he
claimed.
Himalayan
Times,
June
1,
2016.
Consensus
Government
would
only
be
able
to
bail
country
out
of
crisis,
says
CPN-Maoist
Center
Chairperson
Pushpa
Kamal
Dahal:
Communist
Party
of
Nepal-Maoist
Centre
(CPN-Maoist
Center)
Chairperson
Pushpa
Kamal
Dahal
while
addressing
a
gathering
of
party
cadres
at
Manthali
of
Ramechhap
District
on
June
4
said
that
the
consensus
Government
would
only
be
able
to
bail
the
country
out
of
crisis.
There
is
no
alternative
to
national
consensus
Government
to
address
discontent,
reservation
and
demands
put
forth
by
disgruntling
groups
such
as
Tharu
and
Madhesi
on
Constitution
and
bring
the
country
to
the
pathway
of
development
by
giving
outlet
to
the
current
problems,
he
said.
My
Republica,
June
5,
2016.
No
amnesty
for
serious
war
crimes
committed
during
conflict,
says
TRC
Chairperson
Surya
Kiran
Gurung:
Truth
and
Reconciliation
Commission
(TRC)
Chairperson
Surya
Kiran
Gurung
on
June
4
said
that
no
amnesty
for
serious
war
crimes
committed
during
the
conflict.
"Though
there
are
talks
about
granting
amnesty
at
the
political
level,
cases
related
to
serious
human
rights
breach
bear
significance
in
wider
international
scenario,
and
there
is
no
way
amnesty
will
be
granted
in
each
case,"
he
said.
Himalayan
Times,
June
5,
2016.
PAKISTAN
Number
of
terrorist
attacks
fell
in
2015,
Pakistan
in
top
Five,
says
U.S.
State
Department:
The
U.S.
State
Department
said
on
June
2
that
the
number
of
terrorist
attacks
around
the
world
declined
last
year
for
the
first
time
since
2012,
and
that
such
attacks
were
becoming
more
decentralised
and
diffuse.
Terrorist
attacks
fell
by
13
percent
compared
with
2014,
while
fatalities
caused
by
terrorist
activity
declined
by
14
percent,
the
agency
said
in
its
report
on
global
terrorism,
which
tracks
trends
in
political
violence.
The
State
Department's
acting
coordinator
for
counterterrorism,
Justin
Siberell,
said
the
drop
was
due
to
fewer
attacks
in
Iraq,
Pakistan
and
Nigeria.
The News,
June
4,
2016.
Raids
being
intensified
as
Operation
Zarb-e-Azb
nears
end,
says
CoAS
General
Raheel
Sharif:
Chief
of
Army
Staff
(CoAS)
General
Raheel
Sharif
said
on
June
2
that
intelligence-based
raids
and
combing
operations
were
being
intensified
as
the
Operation
Zarb-e-Azb
enters
its
final
phase.
He
said,
"Zarb-i-Azb
is
now
successfully
transiting
into
final
phases".
Dawn,
June
3,
2016.
SRI
LANKA
Sri
Lanka's
focus
on
LTTE
resurgence
diverted
attention
from
emerging
threats,
says
US
Country
Report
on
Terrorism:
United
States
(US)
Country
Report
on
Terrorism
released
on
June
2
said
that
Sri
Lanka's
focus
on
Liberation
Tigers
of
Tamil
Eelam
(LTTE)
resurgence
diverted
attention
from
emerging
threats.
The
report
said
that
Sri
Lankan
security
service's
focus
on
possible
resurgence
of
the
LTTE
affected
the
Government's
attention
to
emerging
threats
such
as
reports
of
Sri
Lankans
joining
the
Islamic
State
of
Iraq
and
the
Levant
(ISIL).
Colombo Page,
June
4,
2016.
The South
Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR) is a weekly service that
brings you regular data, assessments and news briefs on
terrorism, insurgencies and sub-conventional warfare, on
counter-terrorism responses and policies, as well as on
related economic, political, and social issues, in the South
Asian region.
SAIR is a project
of the Institute
for Conflict Management
and the
South
Asia Terrorism Portal.
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